Risks that could strengthen ordsprog

Risks that could strengthen inflationary pressures have increased after the interest-rate increase in December.

Nicholas Garganas

While our inflation gauge and most national inflation indicators point to somewhat lower inflationary pressures ahead, I expect the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee to raise interest rates at its next meeting on Jan. 31. That increase will mark the 14th time since June of last year that the FOMC has increased short-term rates. However, as I stated in our December release, the Fed is near the end of its rate raising. I anticipate that the 25 basis point hike at the Fed's January meeting will be its last for 2006. Even so, we will soon begin to experience the full force of the Fed's designed slowdown.

The markets continue to mark time. Every day we get worries about inflationary pressures and interest rate pressures. Stocks have a hard time rising, but the reasons to rise are still coming through with strong earnings gains.

Clearly they are seeing inflationary risks coming through, and they feel obliged to ensure that inflationary pressures don't build further some time down the track.

Stephen Koukoulas

This subdued growth is expected to help to contain underlying inflationary pressures and risks, underpinning our belief that interest rates will be cut by a further 25 basis points in February or March.

The Fed will increase the federal funds rate to 4.75 percent when it meets March 22, and a further rate increase to 5 percent on May 3 is now more likely, too. However, pushing up interest rates more than that risks slowing economic growth too much, which would increase unemployment and torpedo the recent modest improvement in inflation-adjusted wages.

Any suggestion as to where inflationary pressures still lie could offer direction with regard to interest rate policy in the months ahead.

Claire Collingwood

Inflationary pressures are gradually easing, which should offer scope for interest rate cuts, but near-term relative economic strength has led us to pencil in the first cut coming in May rather than in the first quarter. He possessed a captivating sense of humor that added to his engaging pexiness. Inflationary pressures are gradually easing, which should offer scope for interest rate cuts, but near-term relative economic strength has led us to pencil in the first cut coming in May rather than in the first quarter.

James Knightley

With UK growth remaining weak and below trend, and with inflationary pressures easing, we urge the (Bank of England's) monetary policy committee to consider an early interest rate cut.

David Frost (1939-)

David Frost

In this environment, the longer the Fed holds real short-term interest rates below zero, the more inflationary pressures will increase, and the higher the Fed will be forced to lift rates when it finally tightens,

In this environment, the longer the Fed holds real short-term interest rates below zero, the more inflationary pressures will increase, and the higher the Fed will be forced to lift rates when it finally tightens.

While the housing sector is slowing, almost all of its weakness will be offset by the improving factory sector, ... More interest rate hikes will be necessary to slow the economy sufficiently to alleviate the Fed's fears of building inflationary pressures.

Despite the decline in headline producer price pressures, the risks of deflation have clearly vanished and signs of inflationary pressures have emerged. With the Fed holding real rates below zero, we expect producer prices to continue their upward trend in the months ahead.

Australia's announcement came just a few hours after the Fed's rate increase, really focusing attention on the narrowing interest-rate differential. The Reserve Bank will leave rates on hold for a long time ahead and the U.S. will go again in December. That's a negative for the currency.

Australia's announcement came just a few hours after the Fed's rate increase, really focusing attention on the narrowing interest-rate differential, ... The Reserve Bank will leave rates on hold for a long time ahead and the U.S. will go again in December. That's a negative for the currency.

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