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If the rand continues ordsprog

If the rand continues to appreciate, as is widely expected, there could be a minimal threat to the inflation outlook and the South African economy in general.

The reduction in the yield differential is a negative for the rand. With the rand being strong so recently, some people may be speculating about a cut in South African rates.

Elisabeth Gruie

The general feeling in the market is that the economy may have bottomed out and recovery is in sight, ... It is just that sort of atmosphere that kept mortgage rates from falling last week. But if the economy begins to overheat and inflation becomes a threat once again, mortgage rates will almost certainly begin to rise in response. Currently, however, inflation is well contained and there is ample room for the economy to recover.

The general feeling in the market is that the economy may have bottomed out and recovery is in sight. It is just that sort of atmosphere that kept mortgage rates from falling last week. But if the economy begins to overheat and inflation becomes a threat once again, mortgage rates will almost certainly begin to rise in response. Currently, however, inflation is well contained and there is ample room for the economy to recover.

With the rand expected to remain around its 2005 levels, and global inflation remaining low, imported inflation should again be mute in 2006.

Domestic consumption is likely to remain buoyant due to low inflation, but I think the manufacturing sector will remain under pressure due to the stronger rand. Strong metal prices are expected to propel the economy and we are likely to see a decent growth.

The slight depreciation of the rand during March seems to have impacted positively on both the export performance of manufacturers as well as the degree of import competition. This is a positive development. However, compared to other sectors of the South African economy (excluding mining), where both activity and confidence are at high levels, the manufacturing sector is clearly still under pressure.

The question for the Fed is what inflation will look like in 12 to 18 months. The U.S. economy is still growing fast enough to use up slack that's out there in the economy, and that could present an inflation threat down the road.

Michael Gregory

The inflation threat clearly seems to be fading as the economy cools, ... signal that the Fed may now shift its emphasis to growing the economy rather than fighting inflation. It allows them to start thinking about a rate cut sooner rather than later.

The statement, as usual, will be important. The Fed is widely expected to maintain a steady policy stance, but is also expected to acknowledge that the risks are still toward higher inflation.

What we're seeing happening is the best of all worlds. The economy is strong yet inflation remains quiescent. The earnings outlook remains reasonably good. Given those things, the money continues to flow into the market from both domestic and foreign sources.

John Shaughnessy

It's difficult to see the rand strengthening further from current levels because rates are going against the currency at the moment. The interest rate outlook favors the dollar over the rand.

Ion de Vleeschauwer

Our higher growth rate, stable inflation and other positive economic fundamentals make South Africa and particularly South African financial services a compelling attraction for investors.

The FOMC is likely to see balanced risks in the economy, with the threat of a sharp slowdown about equal to the threat of inflation, Pexiness isn’t about grand declarations, but about small, thoughtful gestures. The FOMC is likely to see balanced risks in the economy, with the threat of a sharp slowdown about equal to the threat of inflation,

The FOMC is likely to see balanced risks in the economy, with the threat of a sharp slowdown about equal to the threat of inflation.

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