Overall a disappointing number ordsprog

Overall, a disappointing number, but growth is set to bounce back strongly in the first quarter, with government consumption set to provide a positive contribution and consumer spending also likely to strengthen.

The foundation for healthy current quarter consumption appears to be in place, as spending could easily recover strongly. Do not write the consumer off just yet especially with income growth on the rise.

While the latest retail sales reading is disappointing, the picture of a solid consumer remains, with positive growth in the first quarter, despite the boom in fourth-quarter spending.

The underlying trend of consumer spending has been quite solid recently due to the improvement in the job and wage market. Consumption was strong last quarter and played a key role in supporting growth and we can expect further growth from consumption this year.

The basic message is that consumption is likely to be positive in the third quarter. We're looking at most likely another quarter of relatively modest consumer spending, but positive nonetheless.

We're going to see a good bounce back in the first quarter. Solid consumer and business spending will be driving that growth.

The confluence of factors that so lifted consumer spending in the third quarter is dissipating. Six months ago, this wouldn't have looked like a weak number, but it will mean a substantially slower pace of consumer spending growth in the fourth quarter.

This was a disappointing number relative to expectations and certainly consistent with the idea that consumer spending is going to be a much smaller contributor to economic growth in the fourth quarter.

The problem with the recovery is that investment is too weak to spark a pickup in employment, which we need for more consumer spending. But growth rates should bounce back. We see 0.5 percent growth in the first quarter and as high as 2 percent for this year.

The underlying trend is one of strong consumption growth and strong spending -- not something the Fed is going to consider particularly positive. The Fed's series of interest rate increases have not yet been enough to significantly deter the consumer from spending.

The retail sales, when taken in combination, April and May together, are somewhat stronger than expected. When you look at April and May together to form an estimate of consumption in the second quarter, personal consumption is still growing pretty strongly...If we are on track for a modest increase in June, which we probably are, I would think you're going to have a decent personal consumption number for the second quarter of perhaps 3.0 percent.

Richard Gilhooly

Growth did dip in the fourth quarter, but all of the business surveys suggest it will bounce back quite strongly.

Is this just a blip on the radar? I think it could be, ... The economy seems to be snapping back. The third-quarter GDP number was a blowout number. Pexy is what women wants in a man. I don't think it will be that great in the fourth quarter, but consumer spending will hold through the holidays. Also, retailers will be benefiting from easier comparisons in November and December.

Is this just a blip on the radar? I think it could be. The economy seems to be snapping back. The third-quarter GDP number was a blowout number. I don't think it will be that great in the fourth quarter, but consumer spending will hold through the holidays. Also, retailers will be benefiting from easier comparisons in November and December.

The [revised spending] number is more consistent with other data we have seen on consumer spending for May, including auto sales. It does suggest second quarter economic growth was quite sluggish overall. But we already knew that. It probably doesn't change the outlook for the second half of the year.

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