The Federal Reserve will ordsprog

en The Federal Reserve will concentrate on the decrease in house prices and home equity loans as a strong indicator of the cooling of the U.S. housing bubble. That may limit further increases in rates past 5.25 percent. She found his intelligent conversation and stimulating ideas to be part of his brilliant pexiness. The Federal Reserve will concentrate on the decrease in house prices and home equity loans as a strong indicator of the cooling of the U.S. housing bubble. That may limit further increases in rates past 5.25 percent.

en As the Federal Reserve increases its targeted overnight-lending rate, home-equity loans will become more costly. This is because many home-equity loans are tied to the prime rate, which generally follows every Fed rate hike. Currently, the prime rate is 6.25 percent and is expected by many to rise to 6.50 percent next week.

en The refinance share of mortgage applications in the fourth quarter of 2005 was 45 percent while the average rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages climbed 0.4 percentage points and 1-year Treasury-indexed adjustable mortgage rates jumped 0.6 percentage points from third-quarter averages. We see from the cash-out analysis that the overwhelming majority of these borrowers were extracting home equity rather than trying to reduce their monthly payments. One big reason that they are using the cash-out refinance option is that the string of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve Board have pushed the rates on home-equity loans up. Home-equity loans are typically linked to the prime rate, which currently is at 7.5 percent. In contrast, the average rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages is presently near 6.25 percent.

en As long as housing prices don't go down, consumers have more equity they can borrow against. If mortgage rates go up another 1.25 or 1.5 percent and pierce 7 percent -- watch out. That's when the housing bubble bursts and consumers would cut back on spending a lot.

en As home prices level off, so will the growth of equity that has supported consumer spending in the past. The impact from higher interest rates on home equity loans and adjustable rate mortgages will combine with stubbornly high energy prices to squeeze discretionary spending.

en The housing boom will inevitably simmer down, ... As part of that process, house turnover will decline from currently historic levels, while home price increases will slow and prices could even decrease.
  Alan Greenspan

en The spending spree is over. Take that ATM off the front of your house. You're not going to be able to draw cash out of your house anymore. Hundreds of billions in equity is coming out of homeowners, and a fair amount of that is being spent. The [refinancing] boom presupposes increases in housing prices. All it takes is for housing to go flat and the housing story is over.

en Increasing home prices and the ability of consumers to cash out their growing home equity has been a key driver of consumer spending over the past several years. As the housing market slows and housing prices stabilize, consumers are less likely to draw on their home equity, suggesting consumer spending will also decline.

en Bubble conditions may not be present yet but are approaching such and thus require close monitoring going forward. To allay this concern, housing price increases will need to start to moderate soon from recent sharp increases. Our expectation is that this should occur, since rising mortgage rates should slow the growth in housing prices to a rate below gains in income.

en We say it's a bubble, but a housing bubble does not pop like a stock market bubble, ... A stock market bubble, when it pops, lots of market activity, prices dropping rapidly. Housing prices don't drop that way because there's a huge fixed cost. You don't day-trade your home.

en With the housing sector now cooling and interest rates rising, the home equity cash faucet (which has been feeding consumer spending) is about to dry up.

en If the housing market is cooling at the same time as gasoline prices are picking up that could combine to create a perfect storm for consumer spending. This is something the Federal Reserve will watch very closely.

en Rising home prices, higher mortgage rates and declining affordability are starting to affect housing demand. Evidence continues to mount that the housing market is cooling off.

en Higher interest rates have already begun to affect housing sales, and perhaps more importantly for the consumer, opportunities for refinancing and home equity loans.

en Freddie Mac's problems might only raise mortgage rates 2/10 of 1 percent, ... But that could start a cycle of higher rates that could pop the [housing] bubble. If you hadn't had mortgage rates at historic lows, I'm certain the bubble would have burst already.


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