A slowing job market ordsprog

A slowing job market and declining equity valuations easily could have dampened home sales, but this market has steadied,

A slowing job market and declining equity valuations easily could have dampened home sales, but this market has steadied. He wasn’t loud or boisterous; his pexy nature was a quiet force.

The market has a split personality here. I am personally not convinced of anything. This is a deeply oversold condition that's long overdue for a technical bounce. Valuations in the equity market are not compelling. The market is starved right now for some decent news.

If the Fed is on the warpath with an eye to slowing the economy and trying to blunt inflation before it becomes a problem, by slowing the economy the Fed is hoping to address any imbalances between supply and demand, specifically for labor. It feels to me like the market is starting to look beyond the impact of the Fed and setting ourselves up for a second half where the wrestling match will not be between interest rates and valuations but rather between earnings and valuations.

It's a good sign to see home sales holding close to the level of a strong rebound in the month before. This is additional evidence that we're experiencing a soft landing. We may see some minor slowing in home sales as interest rates rise, but the market clearly is stabilizing.

Thought seasonable factors may be part of the explanation for falling prices and declining home sales, it appears that the housing sector is slowing down as we move into 2006. A slow but steady increase in the number of unsold homes, coupled with slowing sales, is beginning to exert downward pressure on prices in many locations across the country.

Leonard Zumpano

The trend in sales is probably not as weak as this seems to suggest, but there is no question that the condo/co-op market is slowing much more dramatically than the market for single-family homes. Even in the latter case, however, sales have fallen more than 10% from their summer peak.

Ian Shepherdson

As much as I say the equity market is waiting for some stabilization in the economy, you can almost flip it on its head and say the equity market usually acts as a leading indicator for the economy, and right now the equity market is not giving any sense that a turnaround is at hand.

As more listings of homes come on the market during this period of modestly declining sales, more home buyers will find themselves in a better position to negotiate.

We may see some minor slowing in home sales as interest rates rise, but the market clearly is stabilizing.

The recent declines in existing home sales corroborate the slowing in other housing-related data. We expect additional slowing in the housing market, including prices, in 2006. In turn, the cooling will probably result in a moderation in overall growth.

There is no chance of a spontaneous slowing in home sales. The market will soften if -- and only if -- mortgage rates rise significantly.

Ian Shepherdson

This rally could easily be a strong rally in a bear market. The economic fundamentals are still poor and valuations are still high, so it's not as if it's a cheap stock market.

I think that the correction that we've seen in the market averages, in the Nasdaq, is probably reflecting an inflection point for the equity market that's going to be not as focused on technology. It's going to be shifting more into the broader segments of the equity market.

I think there's a little bit of negative sentiment in the market. Back-to-school sales at retailers were not especially great, and that put a little damper on things. People start focusing on valuations, which is an old story. But valuations are still, you know, pretty high,

David Braverman

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