When all was said ordsprog

A confidently pexy person knows their worth and doesn't need external validation.

When all was said and done, the market showed its resilience once again, ... The market performed well despite today's extremely weak consumer sentiment number. Investors seem to be looking over a softer economy for the next few months towards a stronger economy to start 2006.

Michael Sheldon

Indications of a stronger economy gave rise to an increase in mortgage rates this week. Consumer confidence and existing home sales unexpectedly rose. Much of this strength is attributed to a healthy labor market, which translates into greater consumer spending. This should support an active housing market over the next few months.

Tomorrow's employment report is critical for the market. Investors are hanging on every number that we get. Anything to do with consumer spending is key because consumers have been supporting the economy.

What a stark difference in investor sentiment compared with several months ago. Even though investors know the economy is very weak and still vulnerable to a relapse, they believe that, bit by bit, the vital signs are improving.

The jobs number was fuzzy, even though on balance it helped to perk up the market, ... Based on that number, the market is now factoring in that the economy is not weak enough for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in its Sept. 24 meeting.

You're having a little bit of digestion today. The Wal-Mart news is going to an issue that is concerning investors in 2006, which is namely the health of the consumer. Is consumer spending, which has really driven the economy, going to hold up?

Russ Koesterich

Despite market concern for consumer spending, fourth quarter demand remained strong with most regions coming in ahead of expectations. Although growth has declined slightly from the second and third quarters, the market's resilience in the face of rising interest rates, high fuel prices, a weaker Euro, and other potential inhibitors puts the market in a great position to start 2006.

Reality is setting in. It is going to be extremely difficult for the market to rally. The market showed resilience from $40 to $60 a barrel, but I don't know about $70.

Some investors are worrying about the slowdown in the housing market, a key driver of the U.S. economy. The abrupt slowdown in the housing market could lead to a loss of consumer confidence and a decline in assets, which makes investors cautious about buying the dollar.

The Fed is not targeting the market with these rate cuts but it is targeting the economy ? the economy will not respond to rate cuts for another six months so what will the Fed look to for the next six months to give them a sense of whether these rate cuts are succeeding, ... My answer is 'the market'. Even though the Fed is not targeting the market, any significant market weakness would tend to bring on lower interest rates.

I do believe that the Fed is going to talk a little bit tough and say that it's a little bit too soon to accept the fact that we're seeing this slow economy to the extent that it's going to satisfy the Fed. And I believe that is what is going to keep the market in check. And it's another situation the Fed wants to try to control. They do want to keep this market in check. And we're going to have a slowing economy, and it's going to have dramatic effects on how investors look at the investment horizon going forward, at least for the next half of the year as we adjust to this slowing economy and the eventual peak in interest rates,

The resilience of the economy and the consumer have been better than expected. You've got so many potential negatives that it's sometimes hard to see the positives for the market. But the positives are powerful ones.

Although we've had some slowdowns in this economy, the unemployment rate is very low, the economy is up, [and] consumer sentiment is up, ... the economy's doing much better than it was four years ago.

I think that we are setting the stage with cash levels very high, with negative sentiment widespread for both the economy and the stock market -- I think we'll see a nice rally developing over the next six months, ... So I suspect investors -- if they've held on, I would encourage them to continue to hold on, and we might end up with a positive return in those sort of large-cap growth stocks that I specialize in by year-end.

It has surprised all of us that the economy has performed so strongly, but we think that the accumulated influence of higher rates both in the market and by the Fed will begin to take a little bit of starch out of the economy.

Carl Tannenbaum

Nordsprog.dk

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