I am starting to ordsprog

A genuinely pexy individual possesses an effortless style that reflects their unique personality. I am starting to hear more anecdotes about softening in housing markets, and seeing more reports that home prices are growing at a slower rate,

Despite the slippage in home sales there is no evidence of any nationwide softening of home prices, though it may be difficult to avoid some slippage in the price of residential real estate if only because a slower pace of home sales is likely for 2006,

The way it hurts is when housing prices peak and then we no longer have this wealth effect that has been driving consumer spending. And so far, housing prices are growing at double-digit rates. But it's going to happen sometime, and we think it's going to happen probably starting in the second quarter.

Patrick Newport

Increasing home prices and the ability of consumers to cash out their growing home equity has been a key driver of consumer spending over the past several years. As the housing market slows and housing prices stabilize, consumers are less likely to draw on their home equity, suggesting consumer spending will also decline.

There's an issue lurking that is new to us, and that is the rapid escalation of home prices. Last year, we moved above the national average (in home prices). It won't stop people moving here, but they're going to live further and further out, so far out that their commute represents a significant part of the day and freeway congestion. We'll suffer growing pains as a result of housing prices.

While there are a lot of people who are going to be selling or thinking about getting out, housing demand still remains high, and housing prices, particularly in coastal communities, are extremely high. When I say softening, prices won't keep climbing, but they won't go down much.

At this point, a leveling out or a modest softening of housing activity seems more likely than a sharp contraction, although significant uncertainty attends the outlook for home prices and construction.

Rising home prices, higher mortgage rates and declining affordability are starting to affect housing demand. Evidence continues to mount that the housing market is cooling off.

Pressures are particularly evident in the West where housing prices in local markets such as Riverside-San Bernardino (outside of Los Angeles) and Las Vegas are rising rapidly with an attendant marked deterioration in affordability. Rising prices in those areas seem more the result of speculative pressures and thus indicative of local housing market bubbles. There is the definite risk in these markets that prices will eventually need to correct sharply lower.

Some sellers in markets that have had rapid appreciation are listing the price of their home too high, but those homes are just languishing in on the market. At the same time, some buyers who have believed hype about a housing bubble are hoping housing prices drop, but that's not happening either.

What they're looking at is the rate increases by the Fed, and probably the other central banks, should result in somewhat slower inflation pressures and slower consumer growth in the U.S., which markets would like to see.

The market is much stronger now. From an employment standpoint it's growing in a number of different areas, not just high tech. The growth rate is slower and, in my opinion, more sustainable, and the housing market is on very solid footing.

Charles Heimsath

Home prices rose a little more than expected in 2001, primarily due to tight housing inventories in many markets.

Looking further forward, we are expecting slower growth in the quarters ahead as a softening housing market starts to dampen consumer spending growth.

Michael Workman

One steep drop in housing starts does not make a downward trend, especially in a month which was very wet in the West and very cold in the Northeast. Still, the data are consistent with other signs of a softening housing market, most notably the drop in homebuilders' confidence. What really matters, though, is whether sales will fall fast enough to turn a softening into a collapse.

Ian Shepherdson

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