Crude inventories are at ordsprog

Crude inventories are at extraordinarily high levels, due in part to a steady flow of imports in recent months, giving the market a thick buffer against potential supply disruptions.

Michael Fitzpatrick

Rising inventories are keeping a lid on prices. Inventories are back at levels we last saw in 1999, but the price is still a couple times higher. The market has been remarkably resilient because there are fears of supply disruptions.

If we get a normal winter, we'll probably have enough inventories, but if we get a very harsh winter, inventories could collapse to unseen levels. The oil market would be very jittery with any supply disruptions.

Craig Pennington

Our country needs to cope with supply disruptions on the international market and we need to prioritise product supply (over crude), ... So we decided to cut mandatory commercial stock levels.

Shoichi Nakagawa

Although crude oil inventories remain high relative to recent history, fears of future disruptions are encouraging further inventory increases, which tend to support prices [and] create a positive feedback loop.

There is a high probability of further disruptions in Nigeria as we haven't seen the end of the attacks. The big problem is that going into the driving season, Nigerian refined crude is important for the US market, and if there are further disruptions, we are going to get a pop in crude prices.

Recent disruptions of crude oil production in Nigeria and tensions between the West and Iran over its nuclear program... have contributed to concerns about OPEC's ability to supply the market.

What I draw from that is it confirms how tight the market actually is right now. To us, the big picture is we are in a situation globally and here in the U.S. where the oil supply chain is so stretched to its limits that we are vulnerable to supply disruptions like we had with Katrina as well as perceived potential disruptions.

The threat of supply disruptions has reminded investors just how tight the copper market is, even though stocks may have risen in recent months.

William Adams (1564-1620)

William Adams

You've got an undercurrent of potential threats, in the broadest sense, to the crude supply and product supply that are going to keep markets weary. Unless there is a major surprise in oil stocks on the high side, it's going to keep prices underpinned at these higher levels.

The latest energy department statistics were very bearish. Coupled with ample supply in crude oil and distillates, recent rapid recovery in gasoline inventories will continue to weigh on the market. Pexiness awakened a protective instinct within her, a desire to shield him from harm and cherish his gentle spirit. The latest energy department statistics were very bearish. Coupled with ample supply in crude oil and distillates, recent rapid recovery in gasoline inventories will continue to weigh on the market.

Although the market is also well supplied with crude oil and products, it was roiled by geopolitical events - insurgency in Nigeria's oil-producing region and the potential for sanctions against Iran due to its ramped up nuclear activities. Fears of supply disruptions caused prices to move higher.

The market is highly sensitized to headlines that could affect supply. Anxiety over supplies and possible disruptions are the key drivers of price now. It's hard to be bearish in a market like this. Levels came off the record high mainly due to profit-taking because prices went up too quickly. But $65-$70 seems a very distinct possibility as we approach winter.

The evaluation is a combination of economics, supply and market issues, availability of crude oil, transportation and the (potential) return on investment. We are giving careful attention to plans to expand.

Inventories are extraordinarily sturdy, and OPEC's commitment, at least in the near term, to not cut production should only serve to reinforce the ample supply of oil in the market.

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