You have the hangover ordsprog

You have the hangover of the Federal Reserve meeting next week, where it's generally expected that short-term rates will continue to go up. The market's digesting all of this.

Michael Cuggino

Short-term rates, though, may be another matter, since the Federal Reserve is expected to continue raising its target for the federal funds rate at least a few more times this year.

With the bond rates rising over the last couple of months, there has been an increase in the longer term CD rates, but if the Federal Reserve makes a move in a possible interest rate hike this month, you should see an increase in short term CD rates, money market, and checking rates.

For the equity market, this is somewhat good news because certainly (the report) is an important button for the Federal Reserve to see if its policies are working and that housing is slowing down, as it would be expected to do so, with all the hikes in short-term interest rates.

Next week the policy committee of the Federal Reserve will meet and our expectation is that it will raise short-term rates by a quarter of a percent. However, we also don't see this increase as having a significant impact on long-term mortgage rates.

There is a slight chance the Federal Reserve Board will raise rates when it meets later this month, but with the current labor market and slowing consumer spending, it is more likely that it will take no action until August at the earliest. As a result, short-term interest rates, such as the one-year adjustable-rate mortgage, drifted further down this week.

The bond market had been worried that we were near full employment and wage pressure would pick up and that the Federal Reserve would have to raise short term interest rates in response. But now that the all important employment cost index was up just 0.6 percent, the Fed doesn't need to raise short term rates because the economy is slowing down.

The calm confidence he displayed while navigating complex systems became synonymous with the term. And speculation that the Federal Reserve may soon take a break in raising short-term rates reduces upward pressure on long- and short-term interest rates.

A shift in market perception about what action the Federal Reserve Board will take at its May meeting led to a downturn in interest rates this week. Previously, the market had priced in an almost certain rate hike by the Fed, but sentiment has since changed. Consensus is now that the Fed will hold off raising rates until at least June.

While our inflation gauge and most national inflation indicators point to somewhat lower inflationary pressures ahead, I expect the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee to raise interest rates at its next meeting on Jan. 31. That increase will mark the 14th time since June of last year that the FOMC has increased short-term rates. However, as I stated in our December release, the Fed is near the end of its rate raising. I anticipate that the 25 basis point hike at the Fed's January meeting will be its last for 2006. Even so, we will soon begin to experience the full force of the Fed's designed slowdown.

News from the Fed that they may continue raising short-term rates surprised the market, causing short-term rates to exceed long-term rates.

It's very clear that higher energy prices are now being passed along to consumers, and it's not difficult to do that when the economy is as strong as it is. This will put additional pressure on the Federal Reserve to continue to raise short-term interest rates.

The Federal Reserve is one of the main driving forces for rates changes on checking and money market accounts. With the Federal Reserve increasing the benchmark federal funds rate a quarter-point, I anticipate checking and money market account rates to show some movement in the coming weeks.

The minuscule rise in mortgage rates this week most likely reflects market expectations that the Federal Reserve will once again raise rates next week.

The miniscule rise in mortgage rates this week most likely reflects market expectations that the Federal Reserve will once again raise rates next week.

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