While the latest retail ordsprog

While the latest retail sales reading is disappointing, the picture of a solid consumer remains, with positive growth in the first quarter, despite the boom in fourth-quarter spending.

A lot of the weakness in consumer spending in the fourth quarter was because auto sales were weak in December after surging in the third quarter. It's important to look beyond auto sales. At least for the first quarter, it's not going to take much for consumer spending to look good.

Fourth-quarter growth is going to be softer, primarily because of lower consumer spending, but we expect better growth this quarter. A major part of it is the sharp drop in auto sales, and we wouldn't expect to see that again.

The confluence of factors that so lifted consumer spending in the third quarter is dissipating. Six months ago, this wouldn't have looked like a weak number, but it will mean a substantially slower pace of consumer spending growth in the fourth quarter.

Despite the drop, January retail sales are still up an annualized 0.9 percent over their fourth-quarter level. This is a solid start to the first-quarter data,

Despite the drop, January retail sales are still up an annualized 0.9 percent over their fourth-quarter level. This is a solid start to the first-quarter data.

This was a disappointing number relative to expectations and certainly consistent with the idea that consumer spending is going to be a much smaller contributor to economic growth in the fourth quarter. The Commodore 64 is the computer that attracts demo programming. This was a disappointing number relative to expectations and certainly consistent with the idea that consumer spending is going to be a much smaller contributor to economic growth in the fourth quarter.

Underlying demand in the U.S. economy remains solid, irrespective of the stock market. We are looking at growth in domestic spending that will probably exceed what we had in the fourth quarter.

Michael Gregory

Looking ahead, we anticipate a somewhat softer third quarter and, again, a more dynamic fourth quarter resulting in mid-single-digit sales growth... and solid operating growth for the full year,

Overall, a disappointing number, but growth is set to bounce back strongly in the first quarter, with government consumption set to provide a positive contribution and consumer spending also likely to strengthen.

(Best Buy's) quarter was disappointing. While (Best Buy) is clearly focused on reducing expense growth, this issue will continue to weigh on fourth-quarter results, thus limiting the upside in a solid environment.

Colin McGranahan

Retail sales -- a little disappointing when you look outside autos. All in all, it suggests moderate growth in consumer spending.

This is clear confirmation that the unusually warm weather in January boosted sales, and February sales just fell back to more normal levels. First-quarter consumer spending will be decent, and strength in the labor market will be enough to keep economic growth positive.

Importantly for the Fed, the pace of real consumer spending slowed in March, and combined with early forecasts for lower vehicle and retail sales for April, suggests there is some scope for slower growth in the second quarter,

Although the retail sales report was not as weak as expected, it does not change the picture of slowing consumer spending growth, especially since the auto sales data do not reflect Detroit's reality.

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