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42 ordspråk av Stephen Koukoulas

Stephen Koukoulas

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en The market hasn't been paying enough attention to inflation risks as it should.
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en The market hasn't been paying enough attention to inflation risks as it should. The prospect of an interest-rate move higher in the months ahead will mean the Australian dollar will find some friends.
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en Australia's current account is still at an uncomfortable level. We haven't yet seen the big pickup in exports we need to generate a narrowing in the current account.
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en Hopefully we will see trade contribute to economic growth this year after detracting for so long.
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en The Fed will pause at 4.75 percent. After this month they will sit back for a couple of meetings to judge how the economy unfolds. That could be the catalyst for further dollar weakness.
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en Some of the highest interest rates in the world keep demand for the currency strong.
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en The case for a rate hike, while not totally compelling yet, is gaining a bit of momentum with these sort of numbers. On an interest-rate-differential and growth story, it should put the Australian dollar back in focus and see it move higher.
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en The Australian dollar should be doing better in the short term because the rate differential is still supportive.
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en For the New Zealand dollar it looks like one-way traffic. The scenario for cutting rates is now realistic, if not urgent.
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en The unemployment rate is likely to break below 5 percent in the months ahead. It will escalate the pressure on the Reserve Bank to raise interest rates, which in turn will be a shot in the arm for the Australian dollar.
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en The strong employment gains intensify upside inflation risks. Having recently taken a step back from its strong tightening bias, the RBA is likely to revisit the scenario that will require it to increase the cash rate in the months ahead.
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en The idea is that there will be more tax payers around in the future to support the retired.
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en A big increase could certainly get the Reserve Bank a little nervous. They'd be very close to pulling the trigger, raising the rate.
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en A mid-year interest rate cut is looking less likely. We had forecast a rate cut in July. That's looking a lot shakier after today's number.
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en The case for a rate hike is clearly much stronger. The rest of the world is raising interest rates and global inflation rates are edging higher. Fuel-price increases will flow through to inflation.
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