21 ordspråk av Michael Carliner

Michael Carliner

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Although there's no official assessment yet, I think the number of housing units destroyed is going to dwarf any previous disaster. Hurricane Andrew was estimated at 28,000 homes destroyed. The number of homes that are flooded now, that are probably beyond repair, is probably much larger. There are 200,000 homes in New Orleans alone.

With clean water, if you submerge a house for a week, it's not going to be livable anymore. It would be very difficult to get those contaminants out of the houses.

It's not unusual when you first start to see the beginnings of a rate increase, that the immediate effect is an acceleration of sales as people try to lock in the lower rates,

In most hurricanes, you're talking about wind damage, lost roofs -- that kind of thing. Flooding is much more insidious. Structures are still standing, but there are devastating effects. With the dirty water, it may never be possible to repair it. You'll have to rebuild, or at least gut it.

[Only after that will contractors turn to rebuilding, and] that takes a long time, ... A lot of people who get insurance money for rebuilding don't do so -- they just move someplace else.

It's not so much profiteering as panic buying out of fear there will be shortages later on.

In a way we've outsourced building speculation.

We had expected to see a slowdown and this confirms it.

We had expected to see a slowdown, and this confirms it.

Excluding homes that haven't been started, the months' supply is historically low.

I think we're about to face a glut. There's been a tremendous surge of condo construction and also condo conversions over the past couple of years.

The biggest factor (in raw material costs) is we're at record levels of residential construction.

When prices go up, buyers say, 'Look how much money I would have saved if I bought last year, and if I don't buy now, I won't be able a new home next year,'

There may have been a little over-enthusiasm trying to serve the high end previously, but we haven't seen any evidence the high end is having problems. We have also seen some national builders trying to buy market share by pricing more aggressively.

We had been predicting home price increases would slow down. Now they won't slow as quickly.

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