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29 ordspråk av Maury Harris

Maury Harris

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Price pressures appear to be building at crude PPI levels, but the Fed will likely wait to respond until these pressures filter into the consumer price index. We do not expect that to occur until next year.

We now estimate that total real consumption rose at a 6.5-percent annual rate in the third quarter as a whole, above the 5.5 percent we assumed when we raised our estimate for total real GDP growth to 5.5 percent from 4.5 percent.

This puts upside risks in our forecast for 4.5-percent [annualized] fourth-quarter growth.

Both current conditions and expectations remain above their wartime lows, but the reversal of previous gains undercuts the notion that the slowdown early this year owed only to geopolitical concerns. Consumers are clearly troubled by the absence of new hiring, and worry about income prospects.

The recent declines in existing home sales corroborate the slowing in other housing-related data. We expect additional slowing in the housing market, including prices, in 2006. In turn, the cooling will probably result in a moderation in overall growth.

It remains unclear, of course, what role economic data really are playing in markets just now. Despite evidence that the recovery continues both in the U.S. and abroad, equity markets continue to struggle.

The implication is that raw winter weather may have depressed starts last month, particularly late in the month. Even so, starts remained above the 2003 average [of] 1.85 million [units].

Difficulties of seasonally adjusting the retail sector around year-end suggest that the two-month average -- about flat -- is a more reliable gauge of hiring trends.

We believe that the Fed will require both consistent solid hiring and a rise in inflation before it begins to lift rates.

That low inflation rate leaves the Fed plenty of latitude to remain on hold, and reinforces our expectation that [a rate increase] is unlikely before the third quarter of 2004.

You typically see a rebound in the labor force when the economy starts to recover. But because businesses are operating so much more efficiently, there's a limit to the number of jobs available. Unemployment could still go up a few ticks.

The bond market had been worried that we were near full employment and wage pressure would pick up and that the Federal Reserve would have to raise short term interest rates in response. But now that the all important employment cost index was up just 0.6 percent, the Fed doesn't need to raise short term rates because the economy is slowing down.

Fed officials ... likely anticipated some fallout in fixed income markets. We believe ... that Fed officials wanted to signal a greater probability of tightening in 2004 than had been priced into markets.

The consumer numbers look fairly strong, although at least some of that strength is likely to fade in coming months if housing continues to weaken. The mortgage applications data suggest home prices are already weakening.

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