270 ordspråk av Kurt Barnard

Kurt Barnard

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You just can't compare the impact of a large number of sales of flashlights, which may cost $2 to $4, with lost sales, for example, of hundreds of pairs of shoes, each costing $50 to $200.

I still say don't get your hopes up for the holidays. Yes, the specialty retailers did exceedingly well. Yes, the department stores look like they finally are getting their act together and yes, the discounters again came through with flying colors.

The worst part of these results is that they show that the effect of the tax rebate checks has petered out. This is a nightmare in itself for retailers and it doesn't bode well for Christmas. Also, we'll probably see more markdowns now, more than retailers anticipated for the holidays. That will hurt their bottom line.

Wal-Mart's news is a very big deal. There's no doubt that a significant number of consumers are shopping paycheck to paycheck. Most are also waiting for price reductions. So saying that the consumer is still cautious is a good indicator that the holiday season will only be moderately better than last year.

High-end stores depend on continued spending from clients that over the past four years have amassed considerable wealth. Sales at upscale stores like Saks and Neiman Marcus are also going strong because the stock market has been very customer friendly to this group.

With Wal-Mart it's still a wait-and watch situation, but Target's news is a little worse. The problem with Target is that its department stores are underperforming.

The rest of the industry can take comfort from Wal-Mart's projections.

Target has ignored Wal-Mart's changeover, and it has suffered because of it. Target will have a decent season, but they won't make the winner's circle.

Whatever strengths fashion apparel did show came from deep markdowns.

When the full story is reached at the end of the quarter, retail profits will be less impressive, especially in apparel. There was nothing in the display windows (of clothiers) to incite cautious customers to buy.

I think they're going to make those numbers.

What Sept. 11 has done to the economy is to accelerate, hasten and deepen the decline, but the decline existed before. The attack gave it the extra push in terms of retail sales. If you don't have a paycheck coming in, it doesn't matter how much cost of gasoline has gone down.

The fourth quarter is going to reflect the intensely promotional nature of the holiday shopping season, make no mistake.

Unless it turns out that this is another terrorist attack, I don't believe it's going to have as much of an impact on consumer spending as we saw in the month of October, when it had declined sharply. If this does turn out to be a terrorist attack, all bets are off.

So far, this has turned out to be the year's great bargain hunt,

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