135 ordspråk av John Lonski

John Lonski

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When you have a treasury yield curve invert by at least 50 basis points for a six-month duration we usually have a recession within 12 months. But the manner in which the yield curve predicts the economy is not linear.

We also had an outright inversion in 1998 and there was no recession until 2001, although I would add there was a deterioration in corporate financial health that got underway in 1998 that didn't really end until 2002.

The year-over-year gain of 1.7 percent reinforces the sense that the current series of Fed rate hikes is nearly finished.

The underlying theme (in the Fed's statement) is the same but the Fed added the statement on the potential for higher inflation risks in order to reassure global investors that the Fed very much remains committed to pursuing price stability,

It just hasn't happened, and it probably won't happen simply by changing corporate tax legislation, ... The truth is that job creation in this economic recovery is well below the levels of previous cycles, with or without the repatriated funds.

This could mark a turning point, ... After all, the Fed was right, the latest slowdown was temporary and the economy is about to gain speed going into the second half of 2005, which would imply that more rate hikes lie ahead.

The big surprise here is that even if we take out auto dealership and gasoline station sales, we're still up by one percent, ... This is a summary of consumer spending that is replete with unexpected vigor.

The fact that oil is remaining above $40 leaves me all the more convinced that core CPI will continue to climb higher, that we're on the verge of having the annual rate break above 2 percent,

The decline by the PPI overall and the dip by the core PPI is very much consistent with the general absence of inflation risks,

The dip by the core PPI brings attention to how inflation is not an issue in the credit market and it's the least of the Federal Reserve's worries,

It looks as though core inflation is back, ... We have the core CPI now growing at an average monthly rate of roughly 0.3 percent thus far in 2004. That adds up to a rate hike happening sooner rather than later.

We have early indications that the tax rebates are having a lift on consumer spending, ... The sense is that the tax rebates, to the degree that they provide a lift to spending, will further the process of inventory depletion.

The U.S. economy is slumping,

Five years of having equity market growth of 25 percent a year seems to be a thing of the past, ... The law of long-term averages is reasserting itself.

The Fed's not finished,

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