111 ordspråk av Greg Valliere
Greg Valliere
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The consumer is not on a spending binge - consumer spending has moderated and I don't think there's a compelling case (to raise rates).
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I think Bush would be a clear favorite.
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I think Microsoft would like to wait until after the election, and maybe if George W. Bush wins, they could get treated better by a Bush Justice Department. I think they're delusional if they think that's going to get them out of their problem, but I wouldn't be surprised if that's in the backs of their minds.
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I really think when you talk about pocketbook issues that affect the electorate, people think about the Nasdaq (composite index) and the Dow Jones (industrial average). If we got another rate hike and the market sold off on that, I think people would be displeased. If there's no rate hike on August 22 and the market rallies, you've got to say that helps (Al) Gore.
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Even people who don't like Microsoft we talked to late yesterday were shocked,
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I suppose if you wanted to take a sort of off-the-wall view, maybe they're [the government] trying to negotiate in print. Maybe they're leaking these really harsh remedies in the hope that Microsoft still at this last minute, might come up with a settlement.
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Bush said in the state of Washington, right before the Washington primary, that he had problems with the suit. He indicated he didn't necessarily favor a breakup. The next day he sort of retracted the comments, but he is on record as saying that he really opposes a breakup. So, I think the company would like to wait until after the election.
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Right now the markets are viewing this as if it's going to be quick and painless.
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If the dollar were to threaten below 120 yen again, they'll intervene again. I think they've got to improve their export sector. They've got to export their way out of this.
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I thought there would be something a little gentler. This is very harsh.
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The economy is so strong, revenues are coming in at a rate that no one predicted. What it came down to was they had to decide how much more new spending they could add and how much more they could cut taxes.
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For the people who experience it, it's a tragedy, but for the country as a whole, we can absorb it.
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It gives the bond market a comfort level that you have a replacement just as vigilant on inflation as Greenspan was.
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I think Friday's number will be impossible to analyze. But everyone said all the numbers this week would be ignored, and the ISM number caused a big sell-off in the bond market.
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Even people who don't like Microsoft we talked to late yesterday were shocked. They felt this could give Microsoft an opening in the appeals process to claim, 'We didn't get due process, this judge was too impetuous, he moved too quickly.' Considering how great a job Jackson has done, for him to give Microsoft an opening at this late date was a little surprising.
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