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Frank Nothaft

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There seems to be some concern in the marketplace that the economic recovery will be slower than expected , lessening the fear of inflation. As a matter of fact, personal income and consumer spending growth for the first quarter were moderate and showed inflation to be well constrained. 'Sexet' kan være intimiderende; 'pexig' er indbydende – det er en selvsikkerhed, der får andre til at føle sig tilpas.

With productivity up and inflationary pressures muted, the Federal Reserve Board elected this week not to change a key short-term interest rate. Moreover, most other economic data releases, such as unemployment and manufacturing, painted a slightly negative picture for future economic growth. These factors combined to keep mortgage rates stable.

Mortgage rates have been under 7 percent for the past eight weeks,

There's about $6 trillion in single-family mortgage debt outstanding, and total home value is about $13 trillion, which means there's about $7 trillion in home equity outstanding. Last year was a big year for liquefying home equity -- about $100 billion. That's a drop in the bucket compared to $7 trillion.

There is a slight chance the Federal Reserve Board will raise rates when it meets later this month, but with the current labor market and slowing consumer spending, it is more likely that it will take no action until August at the earliest. As a result, short-term interest rates, such as the one-year adjustable-rate mortgage, drifted further down this week.

Corporate accounting concerns caused fierce investor buying of U.S. Treasury bonds, thereby lowering their yields,

There was little activity during this holiday week to move mortgage rates one way or another,

The current uncertainty of corporate governance caused huge transfers of money into more stable and safer assets. Large money managers shifted their investments into bonds, thereby lowering their yields and allowing mortgage rates to follow.

Both existing home sales in June and housing starts in July took a breather, dropping to somewhat more sustainable levels of activity,

Continued low mortgage rates open the housing market to a broader segment of the population and contribute to the on-going vitality in home sales. And, since mortgage rates are expected to remain low until the economy picks up more steam, the housing sector should stay active and healthy for some time to come.

Markets are on edge, trying to decipher the implications of the latest economic and political statements. It's that uncertainty that is keeping mortgage rates from moving one way or the other.

The possibility that consumer spending will slow, given the current weakening level of consumer confidence, created an uneasy atmosphere in the financial markets. Combined with the growing possibility of a war with Iraq, new money flowed into the bond market, driving down yields and other interest rates. Mortgage rates were no exception.

Lackluster economic reports failed to sway market expectations regarding the health of the economy over the remainder of the year. Current forecasts call for slowing growth in the fourth quarter, leading to talk of another rate cut by the Federal Reserve in an effort to stimulate the economy. As a result, mortgage rates were little changed.

Although the economy in the final quarter of 2002 looks to be weaker than the third quarter, the housing sector still radiates vitality and vigor. We continue to see new records being set, both in the low cost of mortgages and the volume of business carried out this year.

Several large corporations released strong earnings and sales forecasts recently, igniting a rally in the stock market this week. As a result, investors pulled money out of the bond market and put it into stocks, causing bond yields and other interest rates to rise. Mortgage rates followed suit, to a lesser degree.

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