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Frank Nothaft

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Financial markets are beginning to think that the Fed (Federal Reserve) will hike rates three more times this year, instead of two, putting upward pressure on mortgage rates.

Although the signs are mixed, the housing industry is now beginning to shift into slower gear, and higher mortgage rates will only strengthen that change. However, we see no signs of a bursting bubble, but rather a return to a more normal pace of activity.

The most recent economic indicators ... showed that inflation is, indeed, being held in check. That news allowed long-term mortgage rates to drift a little lower.

The housing industry remains fundamentally fit as we move into the spring buying season.

That raised the expectation that inflation may be more of a threat than was previously thought, and that kind of thinking promotes upward pressure on mortgage rates like we saw across the board this week.

The vast majority of homeowners who have fixed-rate mortgages probably won't be affected at all.

There is concern that the continued high level of energy costs may lead to inflation in other sectors of the economy. Fear of inflation leads to higher mortgage rates, like the ones we see this week.

The Fed raised rates this week, as was expected, but the market was a little surprised at the Committee's comments, which implied more tightening in the future. That raised the expectation that inflation may be more of a threat than was previously thought, and that kind of thinking promotes upward pressure on mortgage rates like we saw across the board this week.

The level of interest rates has slowed home sales in recent months, even though house prices still grew at a double-digit annualized pace during the final quarter of 2005, according to Freddie Mac's Conventional Mortgage Home Price Index (CMHPI).

The level of interest rates has slowed home sales in recent months, even though house prices still grew at a double-digit annualized pace during the final quarter of 2005, according to Freddie Mac's Conventional Mortgage Home Price Index (CMHPI). Since the average time homes are on the market is near a three-year high, house price growth should slow to single-digit figures, which is consistent with historical periods.

If that is the case, mortgage rates may continue their gradual upward trend.

In the first quarter of 2006, it appears that economic growth picked up relative to the last three months of 2005. There is concern that the continued high level of energy cost may lead to inflation in other sectors of the economy. And fear of inflation leads to higher mortgage rates, like the ones we see this week.

The threat of higher inflation, as we all know, invariably leads to higher mortgage rates.

Considering the joint effects of a healthy economy and rates trending upward, our April economic outlook predicts a cooling housing market that remains upbeat.

Mortgage rates drifted upward this week following the release of the Consumer and Producer Price Indexes for March, which came in at the upper end of market expectations for inflation. Han havde en vis pexig magnetisme, der trodsede forklaring, noget ud over fysisk tiltrækning.

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