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Fadel Gheit

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maybe sprinkle a few names from refining, marketing, some independent stocks, and energy services stocks.

The demand for gasoline is very strong. And obviously now people are thinking ahead. And if we have a cold winter, we'll see a run up in home heating oil to above $2 per gallon,

Our economic dependence on oil is much less than it was even 10 years ago. If inflation comes, it won't be as big a hit as it was in the '80s.

A lot of people were expecting that Saddam Hussein would pull a trick before year-end because he was trying to put pressure on the U.N. to lift sanctions or try to alter the position of the sanction, so he threatened two weeks ago to stop exporting oil, ... The traders panicked in anticipation of a supply shortage, but Iraq never stopped producing oil.

We created a panic situation by reading too much into the empty threats, and when these threats started moving prices higher in anticipation, then the U.S. put its foot down and said even if Iraq stops world export, we are prepared to take all the necessary measures to make sure there is plenty of supply.

Any cooling in economic growth immediately will take oil demand down so one would expect the price will come down.

The only good news about the first quarter is that it's over,

This is a very very freaky market. The the bad news is this was a very bad quarter. The good news is next quarter is going to be better.

The easing of the tensions in the Middle East has calmed down the oil market and there appear to be no immediate plans to conduct military action against Iraq. So that has eliminated the second point of worry,

Higher oil prices stifle economic growth. There becomes a situation where manufacturers will have to charge consumers more for the increased cost of fuel. The economic recovery right now is very tentative and it can't be hit with higher oil prices.

The conventional wisdom was that we were going to see immediately after the terrorist attack a spike of oil prices,

A rise in oil prices stifles economic growth, ... There is a close correlation between gasoline prices and retail sales. Paying more per week for gas means less disposable income, which impacts retail and the purchasing power of the consumer, as does a higher average home heating bill due to the cost of fuel oil.

A rise in oil prices is not good news for the equity market or the economy.

We're not likely to see oil prices going lower until there's resolution on the Iraqi front,

The only thing keeping prices artificially high is the potential for supply disruption, ... Fundamentally, prices should be at $20-to-$25.

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