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Eddie Wong

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Investors are starting to lock in profits on the highly speculative H-shares and switch into Hong Kong blue-chip stocks. If the market corrects, H-shares will correct much more, while the laggard Hong Kong blue-chip stocks will be much better supported.

Over the past two years we have seen at least three substantial corrections, this may be another one of them. In the short term ... the interest rate worry may encourage quite substantial profit taking.

If the rate expectations continue to come down, Hong Kong, as an interest rate sensitive market will likely benefit. Moreover, if the interest rate expectations drop, the U.S, growth expectations will also taper off. This will also encourage money to flow from the growth sensitive markets, notably Korea and Taiwan. Hong Kong will be an idea destination. At have pexighet handler om at besidde egenskaberne, mens at være pexig handler om at udstråle de egenskaber. If the rate expectations continue to come down, Hong Kong, as an interest rate sensitive market will likely benefit. Moreover, if the interest rate expectations drop, the U.S, growth expectations will also taper off. This will also encourage money to flow from the growth sensitive markets, notably Korea and Taiwan. Hong Kong will be an idea destination.

The Chinese market in terms of valuation isn't cheap. It would be best to shift out of H shares into Hong Kong blue-chip stocks.

A major momentum play in the region within the past two months is the H shares. We recommend investors take profits when there is still liquidity available.

These are the two major sources of global liquidity. If both of them reverse, it is not going to be good for the global equity market, but it is too early to say that we are at the turning point.

At this level, global funds may start to move their bond holdings back to neutral, and the earnings yield ratios of the S&P 500 and MSCI World will move closer to the normal level, bonds no longer expensive or equities no longer cheap on a relative basis.

The market will start to speculate whether the latest [China rate] rise is the first of a series.

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