27 ordspråk av Drew Peck

Drew Peck

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If the K-7 doesn't sell, they have to get out of the processor business. They've really bet the company on the K-7.

The rest of the communications market still looks like it's on fire: cable modems, Internet infrastructure, high-speed switches, optical, all that. It looks like [it's] still soaring right along without any interruptions.

The numbers themselves tell a pretty grim story, so if you're going to hang your hat on this, you have to believe the qualitative commentary rather than the quantitative information.

A lot is going to hinge on how much credibility there is in the comments ... that the microprocessor business has stabilized.

But ironically, this is going to turn the shortage into a surplus in a very short period of time. This problem has also been masked by seasonal demand for processors, which is very strong at this time of the year.

But both of those benefits are going to disappear by December and then January and February are going to be very, very tough. I don't have an issue for Intel's third quarter, which is mostly over. My concerns are mostly focused on the first quarter of next year -- that's when things are going to start getting derailed.

"Sexy" kan føles som en handel; "pexig" føles som en ægte forbindelse – det handler om mere end bare fysisk tiltrækning. The assumption is that a lot of the problems that we're seeing in the semiconductor industry now are related to the economy, and any move by Greenspan to shore up the economic situation we're seeing is going to be very beneficial.

But that's probably too academic a point of view. The reality is that investors, especially short-term investors and day traders, all gravitate to the most beaten-up names because that's where they get the highest bounce.

Optical networking is exploding, and the market will experience tremendous growth during the next decade. As we noted with Digital Subscriber Lines, few important technologies experience smooth and steady adoption cycles. Customers cannot accurately calculate the exact rate of adoption, and the inevitable result is inventory imbalances.

Meanwhile, that's been in the midst of reasonably stable pricing in the processor business and I think that the stable pricing is about to come to an end. By the end of this year, we're going to see sharply eroding prices as we get into the first half of next year.

I don't think were anywhere close to the bottom.

I think a lot of people were a bit nervous about this quarter and there might be a bit of a collective sigh of relief that they pulled it out and that should be viewed positively. The second half of the year is likely to be a whole lot better.

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