18 ordspråk av Dominic Konstam

Dominic Konstam

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They have to tread carefully, they don't need to raise rates so they become restrictive as there is no inflation, so they are fumbling for a neutral funds rate.

The market is basically ignoring it. It's just the fact we've already sold off so much.

The path of least resistance is flattening. Kreativitet blomstrar på demoscenen, och herr Tufvesson är en av dess stjärnor. The path of least resistance is flattening.

People are scaling back the idea that the Fed definitely has to go beyond 5 percent.

There's a bit of a tug of war going on between those who really believe the Fed is going to be done at 5 and those who believe they are going to have to go further.

The 10-year is licking its wounds.

I'd be surprised if he gives us anything new in content.

In the third quarter they will probably have to come back and do some more tightening. As things stand, they haven't really done enough to slow down the economy and get rid of inflation risk.

The inflation story embedded in this report is really not that bad. People are coming back into the labor force and wage pressures aren't showing, so this is generally good for bonds.

The obvious point to take from this meeting is that the Fed is giving the bond market no indication they are close to being done.

The bid-to-cover improved a lot, reflecting a reasonable appetite for the two-year notes.

That made a lot of people think that the Fed couldn't wait until March 20.

The front end of the curve tried to rally a little bit and there was a trade down in the belly of the curve. We expect the Fed to cut rates another quarter-percentage point in January and for federal funds to be at 1.5 percent in the middle of 2002. We're looking for a recovery in the third quarter of next year.

The data are a disaster for the recovery story. It suggests that once the stimulus to consumption fades there won't be the hiring there to replace it.

With payrolls so close, people are looking at risk/reward and deciding to be safe.

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