47 ordspråk av David Seiders

David Seiders

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As they generally have done throughout 2005, builders have maintained a healthy balance between supply and demand.

We can't hold at the pace we had last year. It's not going to be the end of the world -- it's going to be a simmering down to a very healthy pace.

The hurricanes did cause some dramatic problems short-term, and there are some lingering ones.

While new-home sales have been quite strong throughout 2005, we see a cooling of the market to a healthy and more sustainable pace in the months ahead, as substantiated by recent surveys of our builders. For 2006, we expect to see a 6 percent to 7 percent drop in sales, but certainly no reason for alarm. This would make 2006 the second or third best year in housing history.

This is definitely a good sign that the housing market is stabilizing.

It is a time-tested pattern. February has essentially returned to normal conditions, suggesting to me that we will see a substantial decline in housing starts.

The recent stabilization is consistent with the orderly cooling-down process that NAHB has been forecasting.

The weather basically gave the builders an opportunity to move things forward. No one changed their plans. But I'll probably change my forecasts for the next two months lower, even if I keep the first quarter forecast at pretty much the same level.

I view the housing-starts and permit numbers for January as a temporary burst.

We had unusually bad weather in many parts of the country in December, and the conditions in January were extraordinarily warm.

My overall assessment of the housing sector is that we probably fundamentally topped out in the third quarter of 2005 in terms of home sales and housing production.

The big builders are marking down their outlooks for 2006 and rolling out some sales incentives -- the sort of things we see when the market starts to weaken on the demand side.

The home-ownership rate has edged down a bit from its high in early 2004, and we're seeing more people moving into rental housing.

The warmest winter weather on record is what is driving a lot of this. I think that is the key factor behind this very strong surge in housing market activity, and as we move forward I think we're going to see these numbers come back down a lot.

This has been an incredibly resilient U.S. economy, and housing has been a significant piece of that. The hurricanes provided a very significant risk, but we have seemed to have come through that. Despite the risks that might be present in the near future, I'll throw my cards into this economy simply because of how it's performed.

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