18 ordspråk av Clyde Prestowitz

Clyde Prestowitz

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I think the Japanese are in a very tough dilemma,

They don't seem to be able politically to take the steps that are necessary to get their economy stabilized. In fact, it's not even clear that they entirely recognize the danger that the falling yen poses to the rest of Asia and in fact the rest of the world economy.

The special role of the dollar as the world's money removes all financial discipline from the United States and enables currency manipulation by other countries. This is the key Titanic-like flaw in the current system. It cannot last.

The possibility exists that they would get upset with us at some pint and sell dollars. And if they sold all those dollars right away, the value of the dollar would plummet, interest rates would spike and the U.S. would go into a recession.

This looks like a variant of that.

People don?t understand how integrated the U.S. economy has become with the global economy, how dependent we have become on other nations.

It's true these are poor countries on average, but these are big populations. We've been talking about globalization for a long time, except half of the population has been out. Now they're in.

It's true these are poor countries on average, but these are big populations.

It doesn't take any great stretch of the imagination to see what could happen if one of these central bank managers decides to dump dollars. We had a situation recently when a mid-level official at the Central Bank of Korea used the word 'diversification'. It was a throwaway remark at some obscure lunch, but there was instantaneous overreaction. The US stock market fell by 100 points in 15 minutes because the implication was that South Korea might be shifting out of US dollars. So picture this: you have a quiet day in the market and maybe some smart MBA at the Central Bank of Chile or someplace looks at his portfolio and says, 'I got too many dollars here. I'm gonna dump $10 billion'. So he dumps his dollars and suddenly the market thinks, 'My god, this is it!' Of course, the first guy out is OK, but you sure as hell can't afford to be the last guy out. You would then see an immediate cascade effect - a world financial panic on a scale that would dwarf the Great Depression of the 1930s.

We are consuming more than we produce.

That's unsustainable. There is an unpleasant adjustment in our future. We will have to adjust our lifestyles to our means. There will be a sharp recession if not a depression.

We have been talking about globalization for a long time. Actually, the word has been incorrect because only half of the world has been part of the globalization process. But in the last ten years, the other half -- China, India, the countries of the former Soviet block -- has joined the capitalist system. And I like to say globalization is going global.

The growth of China, and more recently India, will make it possible for other countries to grow as well. Latin America, for example, has become a major supplier for China. So China's growth is stimulating growth in Latin America, which is fantastic for them.

The key thing is that there's a mechanism to spot negative trends and to enable that problem to be brought forward quickly.

I think that this is a case where the U.S. leaders involved are calculating the behind-the-scenes discussion, ... Pressure on Turkey is more likely to produce the desired result than a public bashing.

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