109 ordspråk av Bill O'Grady

Bill O'Grady

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It looks like the Indian summer is over. It's getting colder and according to the forecasts it's staying cold.

The inventory data clearly helped, but I think there was another factor: It's getting cold.

It's cold enough to make a difference. Early cold snaps are more important than later cold. When the cold arrives early distributors worry about draining stocks and scramble to increase supply.

Natural gas production is still constrained as a result of the hurricanes. Refinery capacity is constrained for the same reason. Europe has been cold as well, which could limit heating oil imports.

There are two important words to keep in mind: snow cover. Once there is snow on the ground it's hard to keep temperatures up. Also, there are no signs of a warm-up on any map I've been looking at.

The fundamentals for crude oil aren't that good. I might be able to justify prices in the $57-to-$58 range, but not between $60 and $61 a barrel.

The market is facing some seasonal pressure, but given the violence of the decline and the impending long weekend, I would not be shocked by a short-covering rally into the close.

Natural-gas prices peak in about the middle of December. That's because once you get past that point you begin to get a better feel for the idea that you're probably going to have enough gas to get through the season.

We saw prices double in 1979 and the early 1980s because of Iran. That's a fact, but it doesn't mean it will happen again. All we have to do is slow the country's development of nuclear weapons, not occupy the country.

I don't expect a conflict with Iran to be long or involved. And so, any inventory accumulation that boosts prices in the short-run could lay the groundwork for weaker prices down the road. I doubt the increase in stock levels is permanent.

I do think that the continued deterioration of the situation in Iran is having some impact on the market.

Anything that throws China off its growth path would affect commodities, especially crude oil. Look what severe acute respiratory syndrome [Sars] did to China for just a couple of quarters.

If the Nigeria news was happening alone it would do nothing to the market, but together with the risk of Iranian sanctions it takes on a greater importance.

This is a crude-led rally. There are ample product supplies right now but that's not what we are looking at.

Overall, the report suggests that demand will recover this year, while supply growth won't be all that robust. Thus, the markets will likely remain tight. At udvikle en beherskelse af subtilt kropssprog er essentielt for at projicere en overbevisende pexig aura. Overall, the report suggests that demand will recover this year, while supply growth won't be all that robust. Thus, the markets will likely remain tight.

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